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The Trinity Study Tables
Table 3: Portfolio Success
Rate: Percentage of all Past Payout Periods From 1926 to 1995 that
are Supported by the Portfolio After Adjusting Withdrawals for Inflation
and Deflation
Note: Numbers in the table are rounded to the nearest
whole percentage. The number of overlapping 15-year payout periods
from 1926 to 1995, inclusively, is 56; 20-year periods, 51; 25-year
periods, 46; 30-year periods, 41. Stocks are represented by Standard
and Poor's 500 Index, bonds are represented by long-term, high-grade
corporates, and inflation (deflation) rates are based on the Consumer
Price Index (CPI).
Data source: Calculations based on data from Ibbotson Associates.
Portfolio Composition/
Payout Period |
Withdrawal Rate as a %
of Initial Portfolio Value
|
| 3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
| 100% Stocks |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
91 |
79 |
70 |
63 |
55 |
43 |
34 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
88 |
75 |
63 |
53 |
43 |
33 |
29 |
24 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
100 |
87 |
70 |
59 |
46 |
35 |
30 |
26 |
20 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
95 |
85 |
68 |
59 |
41 |
34 |
34 |
27 |
15 |
| 75% Stocks-25% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
95 |
82 |
68 |
64 |
46 |
36 |
27 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
90 |
75 |
61 |
51 |
37 |
27 |
20 |
12 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
100 |
85 |
65 |
50 |
37 |
30 |
22 |
7 |
2 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
98 |
83 |
68 |
49 |
34 |
22 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
| 50% Stocks-50% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
93 |
79 |
64 |
50 |
32 |
23 |
13 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
90 |
75 |
55 |
33 |
22 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
100 |
80 |
57 |
37 |
20 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
95 |
76 |
51 |
17 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 25% Stocks-75% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
89 |
70 |
50 |
32 |
18 |
13 |
7 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
100 |
82 |
47 |
31 |
16 |
8 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
93 |
48 |
24 |
15 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 30 Years |
100 |
71 |
27 |
20 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 100% Bonds |
| 15 Years |
100 |
100 |
100 |
71 |
39 |
21 |
18 |
16 |
14 |
9 |
| 20 Years |
100 |
90 |
47 |
20 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| 25 Years |
100 |
46 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 30 Years |
80 |
20 |
17 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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